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Volumetric analysis


We have an in home test where each respondent evaluates a concept (new segment of plant-based solutions in Recipe mixes) and prepares 1 recipe.

One of the research objective is a volumetric module (We need to understand the size of the (potential) business and we want to be sure that we’ll get relevant estimations (as consumers tend to overestimate it, according to our experience). What do you take into account when it comes to market size (and to our volume/value shares)? Can it be related to Recipe Mixes category only?)

Conjoint analysis can help in this situation? How would you define the model? Is there an easier solution?
Looking forward to your reply.

Best regards,
asked Oct 25, 2019 by Corina

1 Answer

0 votes

I'm not sure exactly what type of research you're doing to get exaggerated volumetric estimates, but I assume it's some sort of concept test methodology involving purchase intention ratings?  If so, there is a large literature, mostly from the 1960s, about adjusting purchase intentions to counteract exaggeration.  A good source to look into is the book Design and Marketing of New Products by Urban and Hauser.  It's pretty much the bible of new product research and it has a whole topic summarizing the research on the estimation of market potential.  

We also often see overstatement of demand with conjoint models, so I don't know that it's a solution to the particular problem you're trying to solve.
answered Oct 25, 2019 by Keith Chrzan Platinum Sawtooth Software, Inc. (104,650 points)