Have an idea?

Visit Sawtooth Software Feedback to share your ideas on how we can improve our products.

Monte Carlo simulation in Sawtooth


I'm wondering if there is a way to do a Monte Carlo sim in Sawtooth. Is the test design feature essentially just a Monte Carlo simulation with a uniform distribution of choice selections?

If not does anyone have any suggestions? I'm looking to test some different design types (custom ones etc.)


asked Sep 25, 2017 by Jasha Bowe Bronze (1,745 points)

1 Answer

0 votes
Best answer

Simulation using the beta draws from HB will give you a distribution of likely outcomes that to my way of thinking is a good and proper Monte Carlo simulation (a simulation of probable outcomes using a distribution of uncertainty around the parameters).
answered Sep 25, 2017 by Bryan Orme Platinum Sawtooth Software, Inc. (177,015 points)
selected Sep 25, 2017 by Jasha Bowe
Thanks Bryan I thought this might be the case. However are you referring to the final output betas that available after the HB process has finished iterating or are you referring to the random draws from which the point estimates are derived in which case I would  use the "save random draws" function?


The "used" draws.  Not the average of the draws (point estimates).